Why Climate Change Is Hard to Prove, But Impossible to Ignore
- Anna Olson
- May 19
- 4 min read
Updated: May 26
“It snowed last week, so much for global warming, right?”
Have you ever heard someone, or maybe found yourself, say(ing) this? Well, you’re not alone. While climate change is confusing, it is happening and is impossible to ignore. Climate change is one of our time's most fiercely debated and misunderstood topics. While the jury is still out for public opinion, scientists overwhelmingly agree that climate change is real, and happening as you read these words, it is driven by both natural and anthropogenic reasons. So why do some people still find it hard to “believe?” Because, unlike a volcanic eruption or a lightning strike, climate change doesn’t happen all at once. It unfolds slowly, yet powerfully, over decades.
So let me break it down in a way that everyone can understand.
Even though it can be hard to prove, we can no longer ignore it. First, climate change is not a single event, it is a pattern. Climate change is hard to prove because it does not look the same everywhere. In one part of the world, they might shovel snow in mid-May, and another might be experiencing record-breaking heat. I know that can be confusing for some, but that is the difference between climate and weather. When I say weather, I mean the short-term conditions of the atmosphere in a specific place at a specific time. Climate refers to a region's long-term average weather patterns, measured over 30 years or more. Or made even simpler, if the weather is your mood today, the climate is your personality over time.
Therefore, we shouldn’t look at a single storm or one hot summer, but the trends over time. That is what scientists do, at least. The data is overwhelming as we look at the trends over time.
• According to NASA, the 10 warmest years in the modern record (1880–present) have all occurred since 2010.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that global surface temperatures have increased by about 1.1°C (2°F) since the pre-industrial era.
• The oceans, which absorb 90% of excess heat from greenhouse gases, are warmer than ever and rising, causing coastal erosion, flooding, and habitat loss.
• These are not isolated incidents. They’re part of a long-term, global pattern that points clearly to one thing: the planet is warming.
The Hockey Stick Graph: A Visual Wake-Up Call
“The Hockey Stick Graph,” published by climatologist Michael Mann and colleagues in the late 1990s, is one of climate change's most compelling and famous visuals. The graph uses temperatures from the last 1,000 years, where it stays pretty flat until the 20th century, when the line shoots dramatically upward, just like the blade of a hockey stick. It coincides with industrialization and the increased burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas. The graph is based on data from tree rings, ice cores, and direct measurements, making it questionable for some scientists. It is still hard to ignore that they could not repeat the outcome without including the human element. It has been confirmed and refined by multiple studies since and is still one of the clearest illustrations of human-driven climate change.
But Natural Cycles Happen, Right?
Earth’s climate has always changed because of natural cycles like volcanic activity, solar radiation, and orbital shifts. However, the most significant difference is that the change took thousands of years to be noticeable. What we see has been happening for decades. We have had increasingly hotter summers since 2010. 2023 was officially the hottest year ever recorded, and July 2023 was the hottest month in Earth’s modern history. According to NASA and NOAA, the summers of the last ten years have hit record-breaking heat globally. So, no, this is not just natural. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), have levels today that are over 420 parts per million. Even though that might not seem like a lot, it actually is. Historically, over the last 800,000 years, CO₂ levels never exceeded 300 ppm, which is based on ice core data from Antarctica, tree rings, and sediment samples. Pre-industrial CO₂ levels (before the 1800s) were about 280 ppm. We crossed 400 ppm for the first time in human history 2013, and now we're over 420 ppm (NOAA, 2024). That’s a 50% increase in atmospheric CO₂ in just a few centuries, a blink of an eye in Earth’s timeline. There has never been a spike like this that has happened so quickly. The only thing that can explain this rapid change is us.
You Can’t “Prove” a Feeling, But You Can Measure the Impact
At this point, my skeptical readers probably ask themselves, “If the climate is changing, why can’t I feel it?” The thing is, you probably already have. Look at the wildfires that have been happening in the West, the flooding that used to happen once a century but now happens every few years, or the heatwaves that have been pushing the power grids to the max. These are all symptoms of climate change.
And the effects are measurable:
• Glaciers are retreating in Alaska, the Alps, and the Himalayas.
• Sea levels have risen by over 8 inches since 1880, and the rate is accelerating (NOAA, 2023)
• Animal migration patterns are shifting.
• Coral reefs are bleaching.
• Growing seasons are changing.
The Bottom Line: Climate Change May Be Hard to “Prove” to the Naked Eye, But the Science is Clear
Even though we cannot see greenhouse gases or touch global averages. There is more than enough data to show that climate change is real and undeniable. Climate change moves slowly at first, like a distant train. You might not notice the sound until it’s bearing down, by then, your chance to act may be gone. So, the question is not whether we can prove climate change in the traditional sense; it is whether we can continue to ignore what science and the world around us are trying to tell us.
Spoiler alert: we can’t.
References
• NASA – Global Temperature Data
• NOAA – Summer 2023 Hottest on Record
• CNN – 2023 Was the Hottest Year on Record
• Copernicus Climate Change Service – Summer 2023
• U.S. National Climate Assessment (2023)
• NOAA Monthly Climate Report – August 2023
• Sacramento Bee – Record 116°F in Sacramento (2022)
• Cal-Adapt – Heat Projections for California
• NOAA – CO₂ Trends at Mauna Loa Observatory
• NASA Climate – CO₂ and Ancient Climate Comparison
• NOAA – Sea Level Rise Facts
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